The Monty Hall Problem

This problem, known as the Monty Hall problem, is famous for being so bizarre and counter-intuitive. It is in fact best to switch doors, and this is not hard to prove either. In my opinion, the reason it seems so bizarre the first time one (including me) encounters it is that humans are simply bad at thinking about probability. What follows is essentially how I have justified switching doors to myself over the years.At the start of the game, you are asked to pick a single door. There is a $1/3$ chance that you have picked correctly, and a $2/3$ chance that you are wrong. This does not change when one of the two doors you did not pick is opened. The second time is that you are choosing between whether your first guess was right (which has probability $1/3$) or wrong (probability $2/3$). Clearly it is more likely that your first guess was wrong, so you switch doors. This did not sit well with me when I first heard it. To me, it seemed that the situation of picking between two doors has a certain kind of symmetry-things are either behind one door or the other, with equal probability. Since this is not the case here, I was led to ask where the asymmetry comes from? What causes one door to be more likely to hold the prize than the other? The key is that the host knows which door has the prize, and opens a door that he knows does not have the prize behind it. To clarify this, say you choose door $A$, and are then asked to choose between doors $A$ and $B$ (no doors have been opened yet). There is no advantage to switching in this situation. Say you are asked to choose between $A$ and $C$; again, there is no advantage in switching. However, what if you are asked to choose between a) the prize behind door $A$ and b) the better of the two prizes behind door $B$ and $C$. Clearly, in this case it is in your advantage to switch. But this is exactly the same problem as the one you've been confronted with! Why? Precisely because the host always opens (hence gets rid of) the door that you did not pick which has the worse prize behind it. This is what I mean when I say that the asymmetry in the situation comes from the knowledge of the host

1. Streetka beeps at me and loses power whilst driving, lambda probe replaced but still having the same problem?

First, obviously engine problem was not fixed with O2 sensors, need to get rescanned for real problem. Would suggest taking car back to wherever you had fixed, seeing you already paid them and make them fix for free. Beeping noise could be a door switch, either door needs adjusting or switch bad, check all doors to see if shut properly also boot lid. Most cars beep with key in ignition when door is open, or not closed properly

2. Dreams about not being able to close doors or windows.?

In the past I've had dreams about being in a large room or house, ((The symbolic "house" is you..... The room is an area within the self which has stored the "story" to which this message is contained.... But, what room is this?....)) usually set in the nighttime, ((the night is darkness, of course... However, as there is little light available, it means that you cannot "see" clearly..... Therefore, the symbolic night time, indicates that you do not have much understanding to which the message pertains....)) and I am running around trying to close the doors ((Dream says that you are attempting to put an end to something.... to shut something or someone out..... close doors to make sure that nothing remains open to others or the elements......)) and windows ((Windows are symbolic of the eyes because we must peer out of them in order to view the outside world. Trying to close windows is an attempt to keep from seeing or viewing something......)) because I know something is outside trying to get in. ((Dream says you are doing so for protection....)) What is terrifying about these dreams is that the windows or doors usually do not close for several reasons ((Okay.....Keep in mind that doors are like unto passageways. They allow passage into a symbolic room from one place and into this other....Dream says there is a reason... )) door is too small for frame, ((This reason is that the means is not large enough to keep closed...... )) window is only half the right size ((point of view is not right.... only half right....)) In otherwords, there is always a reason why you cannot keep this symbolic "door" shut.... It is also your point of view and you do not want to see it coming.... so, the dream says you shut your eyes, or rather, close yourself off from others..... There is also something you do not understand, but for some reason, the door is always open to those whom you do not want to become involved.... and they keep trying..... as you said, "someone/something is trying to get in..... Your sister Ginger, ((dream interpreter for over 20 years))

3. Do you have a good Beef Jerky Marinade recipe?

1/4 c. water 1/4 c. wine vinegar 1/4 c. ketchup 1/4 c. Worcestershire sauce 1/4 c. olive oil 3 tbsp. honey or brown sugar 1 tbsp. liquid smoke 1 tbsp. onion flakes 1 tsp. salt 1 tsp. pepper 1 tsp. oregano 1 tsp. garlic powder Cut meat into thin strips (1/8 inch) about 4 inches long. Soak overnight in a cover pot in above mixture. Put meat on a rack in oven to dry at about 160 degrees with door slightly open.